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“Everything you know is wrong…”

I think that the Monty Hall Problem is one of those litmus tests for how smart you really are. Not how many things you memorized or how much trivia you soaked up, but by how willing you are to change your assumptions when faced with data that contradicts those assumptions.

When I first encounter...

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Risky business, raptors…

The local nudist colony is going nuts trying to buy some velociraptor-proof fencing. I’m not sure if I should sell them ordinary cyclone fencing because I’m not sure it’ll stop a raptor attack.

Time for math!

Let’s assess this risk…

Risk assessment includes two big pieces:

  1. What could go wr...

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When a Miracle isn’t Actually a Miracle

I’m going to tell you about a miracle.

An ordinary person flips an ordinary coin a hundred times in a row and the coin lands on heads each time.

No trick person, no trick coin, no trick situation.

One hundred heads.

Is that a miracle? A lot of people would think so.

Aaaaaaaand, I would hav...

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